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• Power of Bayes’ Theorem – Relates the quantity of interest i.e. P of H being true given D, to that which we might estimate in practice i.e. P of observing D,... • Conditional probabilities, Bayes’ theorem, prior probabilities • Examples of applying Bayesian statistics • Bayesian correlation testing and model selection • Monte Carlo simulations The dark energy puzzleLecture 4 : Bayesian inference • The concept of conditional probability is central to understanding Bayesian statistics • P(A|B) means “the probability of A on the condition

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